Arctic trade route

timhowardlaw

Crowded North Pole

A Russian Mir submarine descended through the Arctic Ocean depths in 2007 and planted a titanium Russian flag on the sea bed, one of the polar commanders declaring “The Arctic has always been Russian.”  Denmark now officially disagrees.  Denmark did not plant a flag on the sea bed.  Instead they pinned a claim on the polar map by using the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (“UNCLOS”).  On December 15, 2014 the nation made its claim to 900,000 square kilometers north of Greenland.  Greenland is a self-governing part of Denmark.  Denmark adopted UNCLOS on December 16, 2004.  UNCLOS claims to territory must be made within ten years of adoption.

No happenstance:  ten year claim period per UNCLOS; well-known mineral riches at stake; Russia (and others) already moving; and Arctic sea ice melting at an accelerated rate.  Arctic open water and year-round shipping may be immanent.  Denmark knows how to drill for oil and gas, and knows how to do it in deep water and cold water.

How much conflict will issue?  Nation states now contend for claims to the Arctic, specifically the sea bed.  A total of 71 ocean going vessels traversed polar open waters in the summer of 2014, up from only 46 in 2012.  sea passages require internationally recognized rules, effectively curbing conflict.  Despite the polar rush, all involved countries know that much of the energy and mineral resources in the area are within the recognized 200-nautical mile economic zone of individual countries.

Like any natural resource race, unknown reservoirs and caches tempt.  Denmark, Russia and many others savor the prospect of an open water Arctic prize.  Russia acted unilaterally.  Denmark acted under UNCLOS.  Now the task is to join action for mutual advantage.

timhowardlaw

Arctic sailing, anyone?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s annual Arctic Report Card shows less sea ice, more open water and increasing algae blooms. The down side is the report’s conclusion that climate change impacts the Arctic another year, and the statement that a driver is human-generated carbon emissions. The up side – if you view it as such – is increased navigation possibilities. The darker, less reflective open water Arctic absorbs heat, reflects less and thus accelerates the warming process according to NASA satellite measurements. Based on these data, some number of scientists (from some to many, depending on news source) believe and predict that the Arctic will be ice free in the summer sometime between now and the end of the century. That’s quite a time spread, but the consensus trend is consistent.

While neither NOAA or the NASA initiatives focus on navigation the impact seems clear. Commercial enterprises of all types no doubt will focus on navigation. Nation states will also act to promote their own interests in the Arctic. Stay tuned.

timhowardlaw

Related developments? Latest IPCC report on global warming and the first navigation of the “northwest passage”.

2013

The International Panel on Climate Change, the UN body researching global climate issues, issued an updated report on Friday, Sept. 27, 2013.  The report confirmed the previous conclusion that global warming was occurring and continuing, and that the cause was anthropogenic (human agency).  The anthropogenic likelihood was raised to 95%.  The degree range of climate warming during two projected time periods was narrowed to a more precise band.  in oral remarks, one of the lead authors observed that 90% of the carbon dioxide released during the previous decade came from burning fossil fuels.

The effect on commerce?  A Canadian bulk carrier vessel and its Coast Guard escort left Vancouver on Sept. 17 and is now off the coast of Greenland, having essentially navigated cross-polar through what has become known as the Northern Sea Route – the Northwest Passage for which so many explorers searched in the 19th century.  The vessel, the Nordic Orion, plans to dock in Pori, Finland next week.  The Canadian Arctic sea waters through which it journeyed were until recent years blocked by year-round sea ice too thick for any ice breaker or tanker.  The irony?  The Nordic Orion carries 15,000 metric tons of coal.  A further irony?  Russia has a series of Arctic ports and a fleet of ice breakers to keep open a competing Northern Sea Route; planned cargoes undisclosed.

An alarm or a green light?  Does it depend on whether you are focused on the environment or on the trade route race?  Where is the United States?