timhowardlaw

Southeast Asian Anxiety

China’s newly-blue water navy struts.  For three full weeks the force of two destroyers and an amphibious landing craft, possibly accompanied by a submarine escort, prowled the South China Sea, the Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific Ocean. The warships skirted Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines. China probed relational flash points along the way. At the start the vessels patrolled the Paracel Islands, which are claimed by both China and Vietnam. Next stop, James Shoal, claimed by Malaysia as well as China. After forging through the Sunda Strait between Indonesia and Java, they policed the coast of Indonesia in an anti-piracy raid. The group skimmed the coast of Java, passing through the Lombok Strait, cut between two of the islands of the Indonesian group through the Makassar Strait and in the Western Pacific off the coast of the Philippines the ships’ artillery opened a barrage of live fire in a practice drill. Actions reminiscent of territorial claims and trans-national policing, all.

Most of the nations along the route studiously avoided comment, some even pretended not to notice. Most by contrast spoke out in the past at Chinese military actions. Secretary of State John Kerry during February cautioned the Chinese against increasing tensions that could lead to misunderstandings, weak gruel for the warriors who would oppose growing Chinese deepwater naval might and delivered after the January 20-February 11 provocative naval embassy. China’s Ministry of Defense publicly claimed its freedom to navigate the seas, and even the think tank commentators defended the exercise as completely within the bounds of international law (see http://www.iseas.edu.sg/ ). The Chinese naval force did not approach or circumnavigate Australia, yet the Australian Defense Minister overtly stated that China was under no obligation to notify Australia of the long-range forces’ movements, even though Australia monitored part of the exercises using surveillance aircraft.

Surrounding nations soothed with words or silence yet projected anxiety by actions.

timhowardlaw

Climate Change: The Coming of Funds

This time Congress must allocate the money for the proposed Climate Resilience Fund, announced by President Obama on Friday, February 14 in drought-stricken and federally-aided California.  The assistant to the President on science and technology, John Holdren, clarified that this was a scientific imperative as well as a political issue and would be a recurring theme.  The Fund is separate from the climate agenda set forth in June, 2013.  The purpose of the Fund would be more than academic research, in that it would include assistance to communities to prepare for climate change and would promote the search for new technological solutions for infrastructure and other improvements to deal with the changing climate.  The Fund would also engage in data gathering regarding the impact of climate change, although that seems redundant to current efforts unless the focus in somehow more unique than at first appears.

The Fund will be part of the Administration’s budget proposal for 2015, due to be unveiled soon.  This is part of the Administration’s “year of action”.  The President will – and has – used Executive Orders to implement other parts of his action agenda.  Whether progress toward the Fund could come from that mechanism is not yet clear.  Look for further Administrative directives to executive agencies, such as NASA and the EPA on his matter if Congress fails or refuses to implement the Fund.  Mr. Holdren made clear that the initiative would move forward.

Read more: http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/198394-obama-to-announce-1b-climate-change-resilience-fund#ixzz2tVC54LBZ

timhowardlaw

What’s in a name? A claim, if it’s a sea.

The long-running dispute between the China and Japan over a group of islands called the Senkakus in Japanese (and the Diaoyu in Chinese) boiled over in 2012 in china.  Protestors targeted Japanese-made cars and Japanese-owned retail stores, and uncontrolled crowds stormed the Japanese embassy in Beijing.  This year, as tensions again rise, Chinese diplomats characterize Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in derogatory terms as a threat to regional stability.  But Japan has other disputes along the same lines, notably with South Korea over the Takeshima Islands, known as Dokdo in Korean.  Relations between Seoul and Tokyo continue to deteriorate over the naming of the sea that lies between Korea and Japan.  South Korea calls it the “East Sea” and Japan calls it “Sea of Japan”.  Korea fights back in unlikely places – such as the Virginia state legislature.  At the behest of intense lobbyists for Korea, the legislature passed a bill mandating that both names be included in school textbooks used in the state, the State Board of Education being ordered to ensure that result in any textbook approve by the Board after July 1, 2014.  Not to be outdone, Chile and Peru sought a resolution of the disputed boundary extending into the Pacific Ocean.  Peru turned to the International Court of Justice in The Hague.  Peru was defeated in the War of the Pacific in 1879-83 and Chile drew the boundary between the two countries.  The ICJ ruling redrew the boundary slightly, awarding Peru more territory but not the richest fishing grounds Peru sought.  Neither side was completely satisfied but both seemed mollified.  They may be willing to put the boundary to rest and focus on cooperation and trade ties.  more to come:  Bolivia filed a demand with the ICJ against Chile concerning access to the sea, and Colombia is now refusing to implement the ICJ ruling last year that granted to Nicaragua a more favorable offshore boundary.

 

Names and boundaries in distant lands, diplomatic offensives at home and abroad – and the Virginia State legislature in the middle of one of the disputes.  There’s plenty in a name.

timhowardlaw

Piracy or Greenpeace?

The 30 person crew of the Greenpeace vessel Arctic Sunrise was taken ashore in Murmansk, Russia on Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2013 for questioning in connection with the attempted scaling on Sept. 18 of a Russian oil platform owned by OAO Gazprom in the Barents Sea.  The activists were protesting oil drilling in the Arctic, specifically in a new area that Russia was opening for development.  Russia was neither amused nor tolerant; the Investigative Committee, a Russian federal law enforcement body, will probe the incident but has already vowed to bring all those involved to justice.  The potential charge is piracy and the penalty is up to 15 years in a Russian prison.  The crew includes an American, four Russians and six Britons as far as now known.  The Investigative Committee specifically stated that punishment will be levied “regardless of their citizenship.”  The Kremlin’s human rights ombudsman characterized the option sought by the Investigative Committee as “gentle”, called the activists’ goals “noble” but accused them of endangering their lives and the health of others, presumably those on the drilling rig.  The spokesman for the Investigative Committee said that the Dutch-flagged Greenpeace vessel was “full of electronic devices of unknown origin and people calling themselves participants in an ecological rights group”, who tried to “all but storm” the platform.  He concluded that these actions raised doubts about their intentions.

Greenpeace rejected the characterization, called the activists peaceful and took the position that the charges had no basis in international law.  Some of the statement by the Investigative Committee took issue with the legal points, international as well as Russian federal law.

The oil platform?  Drilling now and expected to begin production later this year (2013).  The partners in the oil platform may include oil companies from various countries.  No statement from the governments of those countries or from the oil companies.  Greenpeace demanded the immediate release of the crew (no mention of the vessel) but made no further indication of plans to contest the matter.

Piracy action or Greenpeace activism?  Surprisingly muted response from Greenpeace and no statement at all from ecologically-minded countries, the UN or any NGO about what could be a stunning precedent.

timhowardlaw

Related developments? Latest IPCC report on global warming and the first navigation of the “northwest passage”.

2013

The International Panel on Climate Change, the UN body researching global climate issues, issued an updated report on Friday, Sept. 27, 2013.  The report confirmed the previous conclusion that global warming was occurring and continuing, and that the cause was anthropogenic (human agency).  The anthropogenic likelihood was raised to 95%.  The degree range of climate warming during two projected time periods was narrowed to a more precise band.  in oral remarks, one of the lead authors observed that 90% of the carbon dioxide released during the previous decade came from burning fossil fuels.

The effect on commerce?  A Canadian bulk carrier vessel and its Coast Guard escort left Vancouver on Sept. 17 and is now off the coast of Greenland, having essentially navigated cross-polar through what has become known as the Northern Sea Route – the Northwest Passage for which so many explorers searched in the 19th century.  The vessel, the Nordic Orion, plans to dock in Pori, Finland next week.  The Canadian Arctic sea waters through which it journeyed were until recent years blocked by year-round sea ice too thick for any ice breaker or tanker.  The irony?  The Nordic Orion carries 15,000 metric tons of coal.  A further irony?  Russia has a series of Arctic ports and a fleet of ice breakers to keep open a competing Northern Sea Route; planned cargoes undisclosed.

An alarm or a green light?  Does it depend on whether you are focused on the environment or on the trade route race?  Where is the United States?

timhowardlaw

Sentimental Interlude

Ernie Harwell, the broadcast voice of the Detroit Tigers, died on May 4, 2010.  His death was remarked in columns on sports and to a slight extent in the general media.  So passed away without lament my youthful world.  The Wall Street Journal printed a brief remembrance.  The summary was succinct and accurate and well suited to the occasion.  One offhand observation capatured the passing of an era.  In describing his common touch, the articles noted that “his voice became a summer soundtrack for people fishing for perch on Lake St. Clair, working in their garages, and driving to and from weekend cottages.”  For many broadcast years his voice was almost universal.  I remember walking our street on a weekend summer afternoon and never being out of earshot of his voice, coming from every open door and window and backyard radio.  His voice was the hallmark of a time of unity among entire communities.  We shared a common experience and the sharing was significant.  With regret we say goodby to a representative of another era and time in our history, all the more poignant because shared by so many.  Never intending, he became the image of much more than baseball.  He is the voice of a vanished world, a world of secure and properous ordinary workers, safe neighborhoods for roaming on a bicycle and languid summer days and evenings spent at lakes or in backyards with family.  Ernie Harwell will be deeply missed.

There was no byline to the Wall Street Journal article.  It was compiled from the Associated Press wire.

timhowardlaw

Public Hearings on EPA Proposals to Expand GHG Mandatory Reporting Rule

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced public meetings to  discuss the proposed rule that would amend the Mandatory Reporting of Greenhouse Gases Rule.  The amendment would include emissions in the petroleum and natural gas sectors, and also facilities that inject or geologically sequester carbon dioxide (“carbon capture and storage”).  The public hearings will be held on April 19, 2010 in Arlington, Virginia. 

The EPA also announced public hearings concerning five new subparts of the Greenhouse Gases Rule that would cover flourinated gases.  These hearings will be held on April 20, 2010 in Washington, D.C.  The amended rule would cover manufacturers or importers, in the electronics industry, and the electric transmission and distribution equipment business.

timhowardlaw

Additional EPA Rule on Reporting of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

The US Environmetnal Protection Agency (EPA) proposed on March 22, 2010 additional rules on the reporting of greenhouse gas emissions.  The EPA proposal modifies the Mandatory Greenhouse Gas Reporting Rule (MRR) to extend the data gathering and reporting requirements to oil and gas installations and equipment not previously covered.  Onshore and offshore petroleum and natural gas production, onshore natural gas processing plants, onshore natural gas transmission compression and underground storage, natural gas distribution and liquefied natural gas storage will be subject to the reporting requirements.  This means that any facility that emits 25,000 metric tons of CO2 equivalent must gather data as prescribed in the rules and submit reports to the EPA.  If the rules become final, the first reporting period would be calendar year 2011, with the report due March 31, 2012.  Significantly, the EPA proposes that all facilites that inject and sequester CO2 become subject to the reporting requirements.  All businesses that inject CO2 must report irrespective of the amount of CO2 involved.  The facilities affected by the proposed rules must collect data starting on January 1, 2011, if the EPA adopts the proposed rules.

timhowardlaw

Carbon Cap and Trade: Interest Waning?

The Economist magazine reported that cap and trade suffers reduced importance in new US legislative proposals to combat climate change (March 20, 2010).  Cap and trade will apply to fewer industries, and in fewer ways.  Three reasons account for the change in approach:  the economic downturn reduces the ability of industry to bear the increased cost; the financial crisis undermines support for market mechanisms like cap and trade; public interest shifts away from climate change to other worries.  Recent polls show that younger people place significant emphasis on the climate and environmental issues.  Climate change takes a back seat for the moment; probably not for long.

timhowardlaw

Used Carbon Credits Used Again

Hungary’s Ministry of Environment and Water recently sold 800,000 certified emission-reduction credits. The credits had already been used in Hungary to offset emissions. The credits were evidently intended for in-country use by Japan. Under Japan’s program requiring the purchase of credits to offset emissions, the purchase of these credits was appropriate. But the credits, through continued trading, somehow found their way onto BlueNext, a Paris, France-based carbon credit exchange. European carbon exchanges do not allow used credits.