A Russian Mir submarine descended through the Arctic Ocean depths in 2007 and planted a titanium Russian flag on the sea bed, one of the polar commanders declaring “The Arctic has always been Russian.”  Denmark now officially disagrees.  Denmark did not plant a flag on the sea bed.  Instead they pinned a claim on the polar map by using the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (“UNCLOS”).  On December 15, 2014 the nation made its claim to 900,000 square kilometers north of Greenland.  Greenland is a self-governing part of Denmark.  Denmark adopted UNCLOS on December 16, 2004.  UNCLOS claims to territory must be made within ten years of adoption.

No happenstance:  ten year claim period per UNCLOS; well-known mineral riches at stake; Russia (and others) already moving; and Arctic sea ice melting at an accelerated rate.  Arctic open water and year-round shipping may be immanent.  Denmark knows how to drill for oil and gas, and knows how to do it in deep water and cold water.

How much conflict will issue?  Nation states now contend for claims to the Arctic, specifically the sea bed.  A total of 71 ocean going vessels traversed polar open waters in the summer of 2014, up from only 46 in 2012.  sea passages require internationally recognized rules, effectively curbing conflict.  Despite the polar rush, all involved countries know that much of the energy and mineral resources in the area are within the recognized 200-nautical mile economic zone of individual countries.

Like any natural resource race, unknown reservoirs and caches tempt.  Denmark, Russia and many others savor the prospect of an open water Arctic prize.  Russia acted unilaterally.  Denmark acted under UNCLOS.  Now the task is to join action for mutual advantage.