The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s annual Arctic Report Card shows less sea ice, more open water and increasing algae blooms. The down side is the report’s conclusion that climate change impacts the Arctic another year, and the statement that a driver is human-generated carbon emissions. The up side – if you view it as such – is increased navigation possibilities. The darker, less reflective open water Arctic absorbs heat, reflects less and thus accelerates the warming process according to NASA satellite measurements. Based on these data, some number of scientists (from some to many, depending on news source) believe and predict that the Arctic will be ice free in the summer sometime between now and the end of the century. That’s quite a time spread, but the consensus trend is consistent.

While neither NOAA or the NASA initiatives focus on navigation the impact seems clear. Commercial enterprises of all types no doubt will focus on navigation. Nation states will also act to promote their own interests in the Arctic. Stay tuned.